WIKI BY
REYSS Alexandre
VERGNES Nicolas
ZISSLER Luc Michel
MISSLIN Quentin
NEW TECHNOLOGIES
Will the new technologies replace the human jobs in the future ?
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Introduction
In the industrial age, many technologies replaced the human especially in large
industries where chain work and Taylorization are already outdated concepts.
Indeed, machines currently have large capabilities in technology to perform
repetitive tasks with high speed and very high accuracy. But will these machines,
less expensive for industries than men, replace all the branches of business in
the future ? Industry was the first to be pointed by these new technologies, but
have the tertiary and quaternary sectors been already affected ?
First of all, we’ll present the current state of affairs, namely jobs which
have been already replaced by new technologies. Then we’ll study technological
innovations that are going to make this job transformation possible. Then we’ll
analyze the modern evolutions of our jobs, and what human work will like with
this automation. Last but not least, we would like to discuss the ethical issues
and the sociological consequences of these transformations.
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Part I
How does the technologies influence the human’s works and jobs over the time?
Does the different advancement in technology decreased the number of humans jobs?
Let’s try to answer those questions.
First, there is an important point, which is the evolution of the number
of human on earth. It’s a good point to start, because many years ago,
there was not as many people as actually. In 1500, there were only 275
million people on earth and we are actually close to 7.5 billion [1]. And
the more the people there are, the more work is needed. And mainly to feed
the entire population. As an example, we can go back in the medieval ages,
during which the peasants were working extremely hard [2] every day (except
in the holy days). And when there is more mouth to feed, it needs more work,
so more people at work and so on.
http://www.etransformation.fr/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Industrial_robots.jpg
And because the work was too hard, some genius invented instruments and mechanism
that helps workers. So that was a good way of the technology. But because the
work was less hard, patron doesn’t need as many employees [10]. It’s valid for
our contemporary age, but it was exactly the same during the middle ages for example.
It doesn’t mean people had no longer a job, because new one were created, mainly in
the manufacturing of mechanisms and machines (for farmers especially) so it balances
the balance. But during the industrial revolution [3] (1750-1830), mechanization
was a big problem for the factory’s workers, because the machines starting to build
machines instead of human building machines [9]. It does not stop groups or factory
to increase the production in an ethical way [5] (ethic of technologies is explained
in part 4). And technologies ended slave labor, it’s a really important point in favor
of machines. But there are two points of view, the ones that said that there are less
and less jobs, and the ones that said the opposite.
Some articles maintain that new technologies do not only help people at work, but they
steal their work. A French example of how the new technologies seem bad is the case of
the Glassworkers of Carmaux in south of France. In this case, the factory wanted to
replace a major part of its workers by machines, but all the employees made a group
of unionized workers to protest for their know-how (but globally the human know-how
instead of the automatic machines) [6]. In the
article “The end of work” [7], one of
the arguments is that politics are lying about the fact that relocation of factory steal
European jobs, but in fact it’s a relocation with automation, so it’s not Chinese (for
example) who “steal” the jobs.
At the opposite, some articles are explaining why technologies do not steal workers’ jobs.
It can be a kind of frustration, that machines make our jobs, Bernhard J. Stern is explaining
it in one of his articles [4], and how it has an impact on
the population psychologies
(psychologies related to technologies is developed in part 4). An interesting study shows
that technology create more jobs than it has destroyed, and also shows the advantages of
the technologies as the fact that Hard, dangerous and dull jobs have declined.
Examples of jobs that have been replaced are all types of craftsmanship, also delivery driver,
and some kind of soldiers. But there are not many jobs that have totally disappeared, the majority
of the “disappeared” or “almost-disappeared” had their effective that have decreased by 90%. How will
it evolve in the future…?
Part II :
We will evoke here the jobs that will soon disappear, or at least
that will be automated.
All humans need tools to survive. It’s for this reason that he created
tools that were more and more powerful, strong and useful. These tools
are good to replace the humans’ labor.
For example, the invention of the plow made it possible to replace the
man by the oxen. From wheel to steam engines, these tools have greatly
simplified human work. Today I’m talking about the replacement of human
by machines in many jobs [1]. An economic revolution is coming. For many
years, digital technology has continued to grow and many computer and
electronic engineers are working on the automation of many tasks previously
performed by humans.
http://libredagir.fr/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/TECHNO-1-810x579.jpg
Previously, engineers created robots capable of performing predefined tasks in a
specific order. This inexpensive method is fast to implement, and minimizes the
risk of losing control of the machine, as each action is planned and programmed.
Today, we are looking for multi-tasking robots. These robots are able to adapt
their behavior to situations depending on what we asked them to do. These robots
are able to learn new things, they have the ability to train themselves in many jobs.
They are not programmed for a particular jobs [2].
Robots are more and more replacing jobs. For example, cash registers at the supermarket,
sellers in the United States or cash distributors/collectors in banks [3]. Coffee and
beverage dispensers are much faster and cheaper than the human equivalent, and the
quality is the same or even superior because they are controlled by hygiene standards
and always the same preparation [4].
In the United States for example, many autonomous cars (driverless car) are tested [5].
They can drive a person to a specific location, navigate with GPS technology, and move
safely in any environment with a camera on the roof of the vehicle. Some people can
argue with "But it's dangerous, what if the car has an accident?". I could answer that
the automates never blinks, it always respects the speeds’ limits and does not feel
tired. Although there is still a long way to go before mankind can trust machines,
these are statistically less dangerous than man himself.
According the to BBC [6], I can mention here the 5 jobs that have the biggest risks
(percentage) to disappear in the coming years :
- Telephone salesperson 99%
- Typist or related keyboard worked 98.5%
- Legal secretary 97.6%
- Financial accounts manager 97.6%
- Routine inspector and tester 97.6%
The list of this site is a very good indicator of the risks incurred before going
in a sector. And yet this kind of information is not given to young students,
which is a serious pity !
I talked about jobs that will disappear in the near future, but what will remain ?
What are the jobs that will be preserved? We will discuss it in the next part !
Part III :
If everything is going to be automated, which
jobs will remain in the future ? What are the limits of Artificial
Intelligence ?
The increase of automation and artificial intelligences in our workplaces
can be considered as something really efficient and much faster in our
industries. So, we can wonder if humans will keep their jobs in the future...
(near or distant)
http://www.captaineconomics.fr/media/k2/items/cache/463052dad9377fe2445d3b1bfb5f62a3_M.jpg?t=-2147483648
Also, is there any limit to artificial intelligence ? Since his beginnings, AI is
subject to a non-stop progress, getting more and more closer to humans. In certain
circumstances, AI is almost smarter than us. For example, there are “super-intelligences”,
considered as already possessing an “intelligence far surpassing our minds”.
[1]
Of course, the question of AIs limits hasn’t a precise answer nowadays, and is part of a lot of
discussions. But we could have a little idea of what the future holds. AI, may having the
possibility to surpass the man in all domains one day, will surely replace us in our jobs.
According to some scenarios, AI will become so powerful that the man won’t be able to stop
it, or even make the human disappear. Following certain forecasts, our computers will be
able to have the same performances than our brains in approximately 30 years or up to 40
years.[4]
If there must be one category of jobs remaining, it will be the purely theoretic jobs needing
a lot of thinking, intuition or even creativity, which are three things really hard to acquire
for a computer or an artificial intelligence. (For instance language teacher is a job needing
a lot of “intuition”)
For example, according to a report from Citibank (Feb. 2016), 47% of US jobs will may be touched
by the automation, showing that not all jobs will be replaced in a near future.
[2]
Part IV
If men no longer have trades / need to work, what will be the psychological consequences?
Robotization will dramatically change our economic laws and even more, it will transform our way of thinking.
It is a reality when we speak about the disparition of work but what will human become ?
When human was ejected from the Garden of Eden, he was condemned to work and toil to survive.
As time pass, mankind continued to progress technologically, from the invention of steam engine to
the electric motor. Human constantly creates and invents robots and machines to stop working anymore.
[1]
We have seen previously that these changes are significant, what are the
psychological consequences ?
Since 2001, nearly 800 000 jobs have disappeared in the United Kingdom.
These changes are present all over the world. In the UK, 11 milions of jobs
have a high chance of being replaced by robotics in the coming years.
[3]
Richard and Daniel Susskin, two professors of Oxford, have written a book[2] collecting
their analysis on the future changes of work in the world. In an Internet society,
we will neither need nor want doctors, teachers, accountants, architects, the clergy,
consultants, lawyers, and many others, to work as they did in the 20th century.
But previously, the industrial revolution create jobs. The modernization of work leads
to new jobs, but this is no longer the case today. Technological progress is no longer
a synonymous of job creation[4]. These potential
new jobs will not be accessible for everyone.
Everybody can't become engineers or want to become engineers. These jobs will no longer be
accessible to all humans. You can not train a baker to become a computer engineer.
But what are we going to do with all these people who are not engineers, or who does
not like math or computer science ?
Time will tell whether the human will destroy himself after all these technological
advances ? Or if the machine will surpass humans, until they are no longer useful
for the machine ?
https://jonnegroni.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/walle-hoverchair08.jpg
It is highly possible that in the coming years the concept of work will be greatly changed.
Work will no longer be necessary for man to survive. The machine will replace it in almost
all the work. But what are we going to do? I think that art and leisure will be the basis of
our society. Wherever man has no pleasure in working, he will be able to devote himself to
his favorite activities. [5]
The introduction of a universal income would initially allow man to support himself while
having more work. In a second step, the concept of money will be over. Indeed, machines
create a profit, but do not ask for money, no salary is paid to them. As a result, the
price of the goods will be equivalent to the price of the materials that have allowed its
manufacture, hence a creation and consumption of wealth at very low prices.
We can finish this last part on a subject that demands reflection: Who are the men who will
continue to work for pleasure, will not we fall into an inactive state as in the animated
film "Wall-E"[6] ?